“The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.”
-Isaac Asimov
As we marvel at the exponential advances in science and technology over the last fifty years, we can’t help but feel the creeping shadow of existential dread as we ponder what these advances mean for society.
The threat of automation looms over us, like storm clouds gathering on the horizon, and nobody truly knows what horrors it will bring.
The Threat of Automation: Why Are We Afraid of Advances?
While we should celebrate innovation that benefits humanity, our society isn’t designed to support them.
Breakthroughs in automation technology and artificial intelligence (AI) threaten jobs and impact the economy, and we lack the political will to protect those who will be hit the hardest.
Automation threatens millions of jobs across a variety of industries. We can see it in our everyday lives. Grocery stores have more self-check-out aisles than cashiers. Restaurants have introduced kiosks for ordering. Car companies are making strides with self-driving technologies. Writers and freelancers are losing work to large language model (LLM) technologies like ChatGPT, often called “generative AI.”
If we looked at manufacturing and distribution centers across the country, we’d see similar examples. Machines are replacing workers everywhere, and the trend will only continue.
How Automation Affects Jobs
Most jobs will be or have already been affected by automation in some way, and not all of it is bad.
Automation has made tons of jobs immeasurably easier. Calculators make accounting easier. Excel makes bookkeeping easier with automated spreadsheets. There are thousands of similar examples where computing software automated specific tasks, making everyone’s life easier.
Unfortunately, making jobs easier sometimes results in lost jobs. Easier tasks mean fewer people are needed to perform the work. Eventually, companies will realize they can cut jobs without losing efficiency.
Which Jobs Are at Risk of Automation?
The problem isn’t only the jobs affected by automation but also the jobs at risk of being lost due to automation.
The threat of automation is lingering over millions of jobs.
According to Tech Jury, 73 million jobs in the US and 375 million worldwide are at risk of loss due to automation by 2030. Over 82% of restaurant jobs will be fully automated, while robots will do 30% of repetitive work from all industries.
Jobs in every industry, from manufacturing to service, office work to art, are at risk.
How is Automation Affecting the Economy?
It’s not all doom and gloom. Automation has been great for the economy so far. The stock market is at an all-time high and has seen its longest bull run in history. Profits are skyrocketing, and wealth is increasing at historic rates.
However, the effect on the economy and GDP is only one part of the story. The real question is how automation is affecting ordinary people, and that’s harder to determine.
According to Forbes, 2% of Americans lost their jobs between 2004 and 2009. Although the headline targets automation, the layoffs resulted from many factors.
But the real story is how these layoffs affected people. Understanding the impacts on real people will help us predict what will happen when more and more people lose work over automation.
How Automation Impacts Real People
Losing a job has an extremely detrimental effect on the affected employee and their family. It’s even worse when your job gets lost due to factors outside of your control, like automation.
How will you find a similar role with competitive pay if your entire sector gets automated away?
It’s nearly impossible – and the data shows that most people take pay cuts. The people laid off between 2004 and 2009 saw an average 17-30% decrease in wages with the new jobs they found.
Could you survive financially if you suddenly lost 17% of your income?
Wage loss isn’t the whole story.
It’s also crucial to note the impact job loss had on quality of life and the children of those who had lost their jobs. This group has a higher incidence of depression and marital problems than people who were not laid off. Their children have a 15% greater chance of having to repeat a grade – as early as elementary school!
Job loss has a detrimental effect on the whole family, and when it affects millions at once, it affects society as a whole.
What Percentage of Jobs Have Been Lost to Automation?
It is difficult to estimate how many jobs have already been lost to automation. Many factors contribute to layoffs, such as the strength of the economy, trade, and supply vs. demand.
A Bureau of Labor Studies report shows that 7.5 million manufacturing jobs were lost to automation from 1980-2010. In May of 2023, the internet was buzzing with news that nearly 4000 people lost their jobs to AI in that month alone. Statistica shows that the US lost an average of 3 million jobs per month since August of 2023 – and although it doesn’t provide a reason for the loss, we can guess that at least some were made redundant with automation.
Meanwhile, executives ring the warning bells, telling news outlets that society should expect to see even more job losses as automation improves.
How Do We Stop the Threat of Automation?
Mass layoffs and unemployment due to automation will severely impact society, so we must act to stop them.
However, the answer might not be what you think.
Should we ban companies from automating for the good of the workforce, or is there another way to handle the pending crisis?
Embracing Automation
“The end of labor is to gain leisure.” Aristotle
I’m a huge advocate for automation. We should look to the famed philosopher Aristotle, who understood the goal 4,000 years ago.
The problem isn’t that automation threatens jobs; the problem is that our current society values work above all else. Our obsession with work for work’s sake drives the issues, not automation itself.
If we changed our culture to value self-actualization over labor, we’d embrace the changes that allow more people to pursue their interests.
Using Automation to Create an Ideal Society
Automation has created massive economic gains. Companies see record profits while the stock market continues to skyrocket.
Why not let all Americans share in the bounty? Why must our wellness remain tied to labor when machines can perform all the labor for us?
It’s a lofty dream, but not outside the scope of possibility.
We could institute a universal income program funded by a tax on automation. In effect, companies would pay a dividend to the American people. It would be less expensive than labor and prevent the threat of automation (and subsequent impacts) from destroying society.
Workers replaced by automation would have breathing room. Employees forced to take pay cuts could survive. People could pursue careers that interest them because they’d never have to worry about getting their basic needs met.
Automation could allow us to self-actualization as a society. People could engage in their passions. Some would create majestic works of art, others would care for the sick and elderly, and others would pursue further innovations in science and technology.
Imagine what the world could accomplish if humans no longer needed to work to survive but instead worked on projects that would make the world better for all.
Automation is only threatening because of the resulting job loss. But if we redefine what it means to live and work in a society, we will realize that automation isn’t our enemy.
It’s our key to living in a society that promotes humanity for humanity’s sake – and I think that’s beautiful.
I think you’re right about it being a good thing, however, we need some very smart policy makers to implement certain things. Just like they avoided charging certain taxes on internet retailers because it would “stifle the fledgling industry”, we need to get out in front of this so people don’t panic. I think starting with a shorter work week might be a great start.
I would love a shorter work week! 5 hour work days are being tested in a few cities if I remember correctly. I think you’re right that we need to implement smart policies; but we need to start thinking about these things now before it’s too late.
I don’t see automation as being any more a threat to jobs than the industrial revolution was or the advent of the digital age was. It produces more and better jobs to replace the old ones. In fact this revolution might turn out to be a mere blip compared to the huge impacts of the industrial revolution on what had been an agrarian world. I’ve done assembly line jobs more than once, its dehumanizing work. Truck driving is not very exciting either from having been in that business. A world where people focus on creating and optimizing is a world of much happier workers.
Thanks for the thoughtful comment Steve. I also think it could be similar to the industrial revolution – but although that was good for society as a whole, it left a lot of people behind. I don’t remember the statistics (though I looked it up for one of my articles on UBI), but lots of people suffered during the Industrial revolution. They lost jobs, had to settle for terrible working conditions, couldn’t feed their families- it was a mess for the lower class. I think we as a society can do better than that. But I’m also a big fan of a society where we need to work less. I don’t mean be lazy and don’t do anything, but if automation can handle our basic needs, why not give people more time to pursue their passions? I’d rather make a society of happy people than happy workers;; and I think automation is a step closer to that – if we do it right.